Lancaster lecturers are currently voting on whether to strike over the University’s plans to cut more than 400 jobs by the end of the academic year.
University management plan to make 417 full time equivalent (FTE) redundancies by August 2026, in an effort to save a total of £35m ahead of a massive predicted deficit next year. The lecturers’ union, however, dispute the size of the deficit. If the cuts go ahead, 212 FTE academic jobs and 205 from Professional Services will be axed.
The LUCU, the Lancaster branch of the University and College Union, are currently balloting their members for strike action. If the proposal is approved, which seems highly likely, UCU members at Lancaster University will strike some time in late October or early November.
In a separate dispute over real-term pay cuts, the UCU are preparing to ballot their members nationwide for strike action, with trade unions GMB, Unite, and Unison also considering strikes in the higher education sector. Combined, the local and national disputes have the potential to make this year the most educationally disrupted at Lancaster since the pandemic.
In a comment to SCAN, LUSU President, Rory O’Ceallaigh, acknowledged that students’ opinions on the potential strikes are likely to vary. He has said that any decision which LUSU makes about supporting or opposing the strikes would be decided by Union Assembly, the democratic body of the Students’ Union. He emphasised that LUSU’s core concern is ensuring that student needs are prioritised. O’Ceallaigh’s statement, as well one from Education Officer, Liz Gillett, mentioned new Office for Students guidance which says that students may be entitled to financial compensation if their education is disrupted.
The LUCU’s branch president, Dr Sunil Banga, said to SCAN that the union ‘do not take any strike action lightly,’ and that the LUCU’s decision to ballot their members followed months of deliberation. He blamed University management for imposing decisions which left staff with ‘no alternative’ but to strike and asked, ‘if staff are working in an environment which … affects their mental health and wellbeing, … how can they provide a great teaching experience for students?’
Professor Sarah Kemp, the University’s Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Engagement, said in a July statement to Lancaster City Council that approximately £25m of this deficit comes from a shortfall in international recruitment. Fees for domestic undergraduates are capped, and their value has declined by over a quarter since 2018. Many UK universities have therefore relied on increasing overseas student numbers, where there is no fee cap, in order to compensate. International students at Lancaster now pay an average of £25,000 per year in tuition fees.
However, a decline in international student numbers means that Lancaster University’s initial prediction for international recruitment in 2025/26 was off by roughly 1,000, according to Professor Kemp. With an average fee of £25,000, the ~1,000 student shortfall created by this newer prediction equates to £25m. Of the remaining £10m, Professor Kemp told the City Council that pay awards and rises in minimum wage, national insurance, and costs such as energy had all contributed to increased expenses for the University.
The LUCU have criticised the University for lacking transparency when it comes to these figures. The internal estimate that £35m needs to be saved has been backed up by an analysis by consultancy firm KPMG. Although the University has shared a report based on this analysis, the LUCU are frustrated by the University’s reluctance to share the underlying analysis and its methodology. Dr Banga said that a Freedom of Information Act request yielded a copy of the analysis, but it was ‘useless’ due to heavy redactions. The LUCU say they still don’t know the assumptions used to reach the £35m figure.
In response, the LUCU have put together their own financial estimate, which they say shows that there is no case for involuntary redundancies. Their report, from earlier this month, used actual recruitment numbers for domestic students and the most recent estimate of recruitments for overseas students. Based on these numbers, they’ve criticised the University’s newer recruitment targets as overly pessimistic.
In her statement to Lancaster City Council in July, Professor Kemp said that Lancaster University is expected to recruit 609 overseas undergraduates and 566 overseas postgraduates this year. The LUCU’s report gives the same target for international undergraduates, and a slightly higher target of 644 for international postgraduates. The report gives the most recent estimates of actual recruitment as being 534 for international undergraduates (75 below target) and 805 for international postgraduates (161 above reported target, or 239 above Professor Kemp’s figure). It also gives figures for home students as 251 above target for domestic undergraduates and 190 below target for domestic postgraduates.
The LUCU claim that the total expected income from new students is therefore £1.2m above target, although they say this figure still lies ~£11.5m below what was predicted in the ‘original budget’ provided to them. The LUCU believe that voluntary severance/redundancy could reduce staff payroll by ~170 FTE jobs. They estimate the payroll savings at ~£11.5m. By citing their £11.5m figure for tuition fee shortfall, rather than the University’s £25m estimate or £35m total savings target, they say this proves that compulsory cuts are unnecessary.
Lancaster University have not given us a specific response to the questions we asked about the report, however, if the LUCU’s figures are accurate, it raises the question of whether the University is now underestimating the number of international students they will recruit. If so, the actual deficit next year would be smaller than the University’s current estimate. The true size of the deficit won’t be known until around this time next year, once the University has the final student numbers for 26/27. Under current plans, all 417 job cuts will have been made by 31 July 2026, at the end of the University’s financial year.
Because the LUCU are hesitant to believe Lancaster University’s deficit estimate, this deadline for job cuts makes them extremely anxious. Dr Banga said that the LUCU have requested that the University postpone involuntary redundancies until the summer, feeling that a more accurate assessment of the situation can be made then. However, if such an assessment showed that further job cuts were still necessary, it would be too late to implement them before the start of the new financial year. The consequences of running such an unplanned deficit would be dire.
So too could be the impact of these job cuts. Dr Banga says that staff morale is extremely low, causing many to leave Lancaster University of their own accord. He estimates that, if the job cuts go ahead, total departures by the end of this academic year could actually sit at 700 when staff attrition is included. A document from the LUCU claims that the risk assessment in Lancaster University’s own report on the KPMG analysis rates the risk of the cuts to the student experience as ‘high’. The LUCU claim that the same report lists the risk as ‘medium’ just ten pages later, despite no additional mitigations being introduced. It isn’t clear at this time if this is an error.
All told, it appears that this academic year will be filled with uncertainty. The frustration of unionised staff with the proposed job cuts, combined with the LUCU’s scepticism of their necessity, means it appears likely that the strike ballot will succeed. Its impact would be compounded if the UCU’s national ballot also results in strike action, especially if other unions decide to join them. Whilst this could pressure the University, it would also increase the risk of educational disruption and could have a significant financial impact on staff, who are not paid whilst on strike.
It’s easy to get so caught up in the facts and figures of this nationwide higher education crisis that the human impact gets forgotten. Whether it’s staff worrying if they’ll still have a job this time next year, or students worrying about the impact on their education, or administrators worrying for the future of their institution, the prevailing climate on university campuses is one of anxiety.
Updates for digital version 13/10/2025:
One paragraph (The LUCU believe…) has been altered for clarity at the request of the Lancaster UCU.
Following initial publication, Lancaster University gave SCAN the following comment:
“Lancaster University is having to make very difficult but necessary decisions in the light of financial pressures impacting the whole UK university sector.
As a result of these pressures – which include increased operating costs and declining international student numbers – the University is seeking to find total cost savings of £30M from our payroll budget across both academic and professional services. The University is making every effort to try to find these savings through voluntary means – a process which is currently underway – in consultation with our trade unions.
While we are working to find non-payroll savings, some capital projects are essential investments which enable the University to continue to operate as a safe and attractive place to live, work and study for our students and staff. We continue to operate our business to high sector and industry standards and all high-value contracts with external suppliers are required to go through strict procurement and due diligence procedures.
Lancaster is determined to continue to offer excellent research and teaching as a leading comprehensive university offering a full range of disciplines in line with our strategy to remain a recognised global leader which has a transformative impact in the communities in which we operate.
The University is making careful choices about where to invest and where to deliver strategic efficiencies, guided not only by financial considerations but also by wider factors such as student demand, research impact and civic contribution.
We recognise that this is a deeply unsettling time for our staff, students, and the communities we serve, and we do not enter into this process lightly. However, achieving financial sustainability is essential to securing the University’s future.“
